Check back after this week’s games to see whether you beat FiveThirtyEight and how you stacked up against everyone else. You can use these odds to help make your predictions on which teams have to best chances to win it all at the end of the season, or which teams will go over or under their season win totals. The Eagles are listed at -20000 odds to get into the 2024 NFL playoffs. With the final AFC playoff spot up for grabs in Week 18, FiveThirtyEight has released its final playoff odds for the Dolphins, Patriots and Steelers entering the final weekend of the regular. 3% – Falcons. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. A positive number (+) means they are not favored to win. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Two weeks ago. Arizona Cardinals. Better. They got there by defeating the. Full methodology ». We looked at the 538 Playoff Odds projections last week and they were incredibly favorable to the Vikings. There are seven teams clustered from 8-7 to 7-8, with odds as high as 36 percent (Chargers and Ravens) and as low as less than 0. September 2, 2021 - by Jason Lisk. Here are the playoff odds for the Seahawks and the other 31 NFL teams: No team has clinched a playoff berth so far, although some are all but certain to make it. If you choose the Pittsburgh Penguins to win with odds of +200, a winning wager would return you $300 (your original $100 bet plus the +200 odds). Stats. (10 by FanDuel), a paltry 23 percent chance at the playoffs (FanDuel with sixth-best odds), and a mere 1 percent crack at the title (FD against with sixth-best odds). Below are Sporting News' predictions for the 2022 NFL playoffs, complete with fresh Super Bowl picks, as our NFL experts Vinnie Iyer, Bill. Preseason favorites, including the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, remain in fantastic shape as far as the odds are concerned. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. If there’s a team that can slow down the Chiefs, it’s the. What do the odds say about the games, the NFC Championship Game and the AFC Championship Game? Take a look at the point spread, moneyline and over/under for the two NFL playoff games on Sunday. Expert picks, analysis, and advice for upcoming NFL games. . The Washington Commanders had a clear path to the playoffs ahead of Week 15. The Buccaneers are sitting well with a 52% chance of making NFC champs and a 24% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. The model enters Super Wild Card Weekend in the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 161-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Here's a breakdown on the best value bets and sleeper teams to wager on at this point in the season. Scores. CONFERENCE Elo rating Elo 1-Week Change Make playoffs Make play-Win Rates. FiveThirtyEight's model does not. More. Teams. The Chiefs were the favorites all offseason as well, but saw the 49ers take over after Week 1. Cincinnati Bengals +570. Additionally, if you are looking for real-time updated Playoff Odds, both 538 and Football Outsiders offer high. Friday, January 27, 2023. One of the NFL playoff bracket predictions from the model: It says the 49ers only have a 25. Record. Two games are slated for Saturday, with three additional games on Sunday. More. Filed under Football. Just to qualify for the playoffs, they're listed at -185. Week 8 of the NFL season was rough for the Carolina Panthers. 3. FiveThirtyEight expects Nets to lock up No. FiveThirtyEight predicts NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVI odds. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. . Statistical model by Nate Silver. Thanksgiving Day NFL: Seahawks-49ers odds, picks, simsPractically Must-Win in Week 17 Seattle Seahawks . Mike Tomlin. Playoff odds are also not much changed from last week: Green Bay saw its postseason chances improve the most. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Josh Allen helped spearhead the effort. The NFL playoff elimination scenarios for Week 12, 2023. Colin's thoughts: "Rookie coach, rookie coordinator, rookie quarterback. When reading NFL odds, a negative number (-) by a team’s name means they are favored to win. FILE—CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys avoids a tackle from Tay Gowan of the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on. FiveThirtyEight released its annual NFL team win total projections this week,. Jets These NFL playoff odds can fluctuate on a weekly basis. It is also on a 15-6 roll on top-rated NFL. 5 Eagles vs. Even more importantly, too, Detroit's playoff odds subsequently increased. The sample sizes are tiny: With a one-and-done playoff structure, the league plays only 11 playoff games each year. 9h Kevin Pulsifer. The 2021 NFL season is over. Sunday's game in Arizona is critical for the Bolts if they want to remain in the playoff mix. In fact, in the Saints’ first nine games, the only 2022 playoff team they face is the Jags, who had to win five straight to get to 9-8 and in the postseason last year. See each NFL teams chances to make the playoffs and win the 2024 Super Bowl. The. NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds. NFL MVP Odds 2023-24 Season. Philadelphia Eagles-30000. PIT at CIN Sun 1:00PM. By Josh Planos. 10. How could player moves reshuffle the NBA’s tiers? Projected records and playoff odds, based on RAPTOR player ratings and expected minutes, will update when a roster is adjusted. The Super Bowl race might be a little “dull,” but the playoff race surely won’t be. 3 pick in the NFL Draft. 5, 2022, at 11:22 PM 2022 MLB PredictionsFiveThirtyEight calculated game-by-game Elo ratings for every team in NFL history, over 30,000 ratings in total. The previous No. Dallas Cowboys-4000. We're halfway through the 2023 NFL season, and the playoff races in the AFC and NFC are starting to heat up. NO at ATL Sun 1:00PM. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts. 55 to 0. Six weeks into the season the AFC playoff picture has seemingly begun to form a shape already. Kris Johnson 10-26-2023 • 3 min read AP Photo The ups and downs of any pro football season can make betting on NFL teams to make the playoffs an 18-week roller-coaster ride. Eagles: Eagles vs. Super Bowl odds. There are just two. College Football Playoff according to FiveThirtyEight’s College. Denver Broncos » The Denver Broncos (5-5) beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 27 percent. For the best local Columbus news, sports. 95. ’s odds would drop precipitously: The Clips’ regular-season record would dip to 45-37 and their point differential to plus-1. College Football Championship odds 2024 (Odds updated Nov. 11 in the league, and Chris Jones is one of the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year with 15. go inside how the Chargers created one of the most dominant rushing attacks in the NFL through the first two weeks of 2023. The Arizona Cardinals, Carolina. Ohio State – +900. There’s a shakeup at the top of the list following the retirement of Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and the usual suspects from the last few seasons near the bottom. Every team in the AFC North is at least 5-3 this season, which has set the tone for the. The round is wrapped up with a Monday Night Football game on. Left for dead at 1-5, the Broncos find themselves still in the playoff race at . Buffalo Bills (13-3). Week 12. Standings. . Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is the top MVP favorite at +370 after throwing for three TDs in Sunday’s win. Here's a look at live odds on NFL teams to make the playoffs on the best sports betting apps: Bet NFL Now: Best NFL Betting Promos & Bonuses . The NFL is the king of parity, especially with the expanded playoff field. *The Blazers and Pelicans have identical projected records (34-48), but FiveThirtyEight gives New Orleans a 13 percent chance of making the playoffs, while Portland is at 6 percent. It’s a 54 percent favorite to make the playoffs, up from 38 percent last week. Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. 6, 2021. Elo’s straight-up record of picking winners is 64-26-1 on the year (10-4-1 in Week 6) or a 71 percent winning percentage. odds to make NFL Playoffs. Only the Cardinals had worse implied chances. What to know: The Bills still hold the No. It’s the revenge of Frank Reich game, since he authored the biggest comeback in NFL playoff history and this is the first in regular-season history where a winning team had trailed by at least. NFL playoff odds: Teams offering the most value. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections. Heading into Week 14, Tua led the NFL in dropbacks with motion at the snap, and he had a raw QBR of 63. NFC Playoff Odds. The setting of the playoff field has solidified the odds for each of the 14 postseason teams to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 123. 5 (-110) @ Jaguars. Click the button below to take your shot. Current playoff odds (via FiveThirtyEight. That’s. Los Angeles changes the NFL playoff picture. The Eagles Played Their A-Game, But The Chiefs Had Patrick Mahomes. Better. Week 13. Packers odds to make the playoffs: Yes +175, No -225. A win on the road would send the Saints into their bye week at 5-8, about half a game behind the Buccaneers (who would have a higher winning percentage at 5-7). Seventeen teams have a 73% and 15% chance of making the playoffs. Bills at Texans (-3), O/U 39. The Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have the best chance of making the playoffs. If the New Orleans Saints are listed at. The 2023 NFL playoffs and the countdown to Super Bowl 57 are upon us. The model enters Super Wild Card Weekend in the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 161-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, vs. For instance, (-200) Stanley Cup® Final odds mean that for every $200 wagered on a team, the house will pay out $100 if that team wins. A metric called RAPTOR loves the Raptors — shocking! ‘Tis the season for NBA prognosticating, with the league returning to the court for 2022-23 on Tuesday night. Washington players celebrate after defeating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Monday. ET, ESPN/ABC. Ravens 28, Browns 3. The AFC playoff field looks stronger than the NFC Best postseason fields of the NFL’s 14-team playoff era (2020-22) by conference, according to pre-playoff QB-adjusted Elo ratings Seed No. Wide receivers and tight ends with at least 48 targets in the 2022 season are eligible for leaderboards. NFL predictions are naturally subject to a lot of variance compared to the other sports the predict. 26, 2023. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. If they're victorious—or lose by fewer points than the spread—you'd win $150. Let's evaluate last season's playoff teams and rate their chances of making it back in January. The Chiefs And Eagles Made The Super Bowl With Grit, Talent, Heart And (Yes) Luck. Anyway. The 2022 NFL playoffs are advancing to the Divisional round this weekend. 19, 2023 Updated 11:49 p. 1, the New England Patriots, also won on Sunday, but in much less impressive fashion, defeating the New York Jets 17-16. But it could be a lot worse. More. 2021 NFL Predictions. Morry Gash / AP. Current playoff odds (via FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and. FiveThirtyEight currently has the Patriots with a 36 percent chance of making. Scores. If the Eagles win against Washington, their playoff odds leap to 90%. And making predictions, whether we’re. Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. Depth Charts. Los Angeles Chargers » The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6). Teams. 26, 2022, at 10:51 PM. Daily Lines. Speaking on NFL Playoff predictions and best bets, we have to start with the understanding that 14 of the sport’s 32 teams make the. For example, if the Minnesota Vikings are listed at -130, you must bet $130 to turn a $100 profit on a Vikings win. FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship. UPDATED Jun. Basically this is Josh Allen's first playoff game and just the. 3. Every team in the AFC North is at least 5-3 this season, which has set the tone for the. Teams. Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting. FiveThirtyEight's 2021-22 NHL forecast predicts the winner of each hockey game and calculates each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. Team NBA Title July Odds Opening Night Odds 538 Odds Consensus Win Total 538 Projected Wins. Yes: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total) Sportsbooks are offering odds on NFL teams to make the 2023-24 playoffs. They are your 2023 Zombie Team, rising from the grave to haunt the AFC. What the odds say: +210 to make playoffs, +5500 to win AFC, +8000 to win Super Bowl. Nov. . m. Probability of winning the Super Bowl by rank (among playoff field) for the 2018 season and the average of the 1990-2017 seasons, according to FiveThirtyEight Elo ratings rank 2018 TeamIt’s hard to say whether this is an anomaly or part of a larger trend toward more randomness in the NFL playoffs. According to the latest odds, the Chiefs continue to be the favorite on the AFC side, while three teams top the charts in the NFC: Eagles, Lions, and 49ers. Odds courtesy of bet365 as of October 17, 2023. 12, 2023, at 10:17 PM 2022. NFL (976 posts) NFL Playoffs (108) Philadelphia Eagles (87) Dallas Cowboys (84) NFL Slack Chat (78) New York Jets (38) Detroit Lions (33) NFL Quarterbacks (24) Las Vegas Raiders (14) NFL Playoff. Detroit. The 5 Most Exciting Super Bowls Ever. The AFC playoff spots are far harder to break into than the ones in the NFC. Cleveland Browns. Overall. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. The Texas Rangers won the 2023 World Series and now there are only five teams that have never won the World Series. Welcome to the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season. Super Bowl odds: +420 FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 30. Six teams have clinched playoff berths, and though that’s still just 43 percent of the postseason field, at least we’re getting closer. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008 in 2020, head coach Bill Belichick and the front office spent a record $163 million in guaranteed money heading into 2021. For example, if the Minnesota Vikings are listed at -130, you must bet $130 to turn a $100 profit on a Vikings win. As Gregg noted, the 4-5 New Orleans Saints would make the playoffs if the season ended today (as. Miami’s playoff odds dropped by 14 percentage points following Sunday night’s 23-17 loss to the Chargers, per FiveThirtyEight, but really the decline is even steeper than that. It’s another week of NFL games — and another chance to beat FiveThirtyEight at its own game. His first season in Cleveland was rough, completing just 58. See their straight up, against the spread, over/under, underdog and prop picks. So Seattle’s Elo rating is now 1755, ahead of New. The Stanley Cup betting odds on a moneyline bet are formatted to indicate how much will be returned on a $100 wager. 6, and their odds of making the. 15, 2022. Filed under Super Bowl LVII. Week 10 kicked off with the Chicago Bears defeating the Carolina Panthers 16-13, but that outcome did not affect the playoff picture we all. We played out one of our Football Power Index's 20,000 season sims, from Week 1 through Super Bowl LVIII, with playoff races, surprises and more. The Gini coefficient for NFC playoff probabilities increased from 0. Statistical model by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. Filed under NFL. It. Some of the favorites will come as no surprise, such as the defending champion Kansas. You'd also get back your initial $100 stake, for a total of $250, back into your pocket. First Round Bye. joshua. 1d ESPN staff. Related: Super Bowl odds: Every team’s. There are a few heavy favorites to reach the postseason, including the undefeated San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC. Feb. Their loss, combined with the Chargers’ win over Tennessee, has. 49ers:. On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots, who had entered Week 13 ranked first in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. The Cowboys still have a 30% chance of making NFC champs with their current. Heading into Week 14, Tua led the NFL in dropbacks with motion at the snap, and he had a raw QBR of 63. The current 2023 NFL Playoff Odds show that the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are the most likely team to qualify for the AFC postseason at -500 and the San Francisco 49ers are their NFC counterparts at -455 to. The Sooners would have to. We tiered each team's likelihood of making the postseason, from the Super Bowl favorites to the No. Schedule. 2 percentage points. The 2021 WNBA playoffs aren’t finished yet, but its regular season saw a gap of 392 points between the best and worst teams. 2023 NFL predictions: AFC East gauntlet might take down Bills, Jets. . The Arizona Cardinals’ Stepfan Taylor runs with the ball during a game against the St. Georgia Bulldogs: -360 (bet $10 to win $12. We’re midway through the NFL offseason, and sportsbooks have released NFL playoff odds on each team for the upcoming campaign. FiveThirtyEight & DARKO Click the odds below to bet any of these prices now at DraftKings Sportsbook. Point spread: Ravens (-1. The Cardinals are 2-8 following a home win over the Falcons on Sunday. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. FiveThirtyEight predicts NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVI odds. com. FiveThirtyEight predicts NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVI odds. Schedule. Click the button below to take your shot. 2022 statistics are through the conference championship games. FiveThirtyEight's 2018 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Daily Lines. Until 2022, the highest preseason odds of any team in the playoff era belonged to 2018 Alabama, whose odds adjusted to 30. By Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Nate Silver. Standings. A game’s importance is based on how much it swings the playoff odds of. Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8) — Monday 8:15 p. Brackets originally published March 13. The sample sizes are tiny: With a one-and-done playoff structure, the league plays only 11 playoff games each year. Feb. A win over the Cardinals would increase those odds to 98 percent; a loss would decrease. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. 85 total) Oregon Ducks: -180 (bet $10 to win. The Falcons aren’t among the 2023 Super Bowl favorites, and there’s really no reason to believe they should be at this point. Also Read: Highest-paid college football coaches 2023: Nick Saban, Kirby Smart lead NCAA salaries. So Seattle’s Elo rating is now 1755, ahead of New. It is also on a 15-6 roll on top-rated NFL. But the 2022 playoff bracket is a chance to start fresh. Jared Goff threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns, and Jamaal Williams put up nearly 150. Schedule. Daily Lines. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Even with a third-string QB, the 49ers still have the second-best odds to make it to the NFC championship game and fourth-best odds to make it to the Super Bowl, according to our model. New York Times Playoff Simulator Lets Fans Test Out Playoff Scenarios. FiveThirtyEight's Ryan Best tweeted that the site will no longer support sports forecasts as a result of layoffs at Disney and ABC Sports. 4 best college football teams of all time. 9 on 12 dropbacks with motion. Depth Charts. How much will this game affect playoff odds. 49ers spread: Philadelphia -2. NFL. FiveThirtyEight, CTV Montreal, The Canadian Press, TSN 690, the. FiveThirtyEight's Ryan Best tweeted that the site will no longer support sports forecasts as a result of layoffs at Disney and ABC Sports. The Lions were in a must-win scenario in Week 17 to keep their playoff chances alive. Are you FiveThirtyEight? Claim this page. NFL predictions Can you outsmart our NFL forecasts? Unlikely to happen! That combination of outcomes occurs in <0. With a 23% chance at the playoffs, that puts the Rams 19th in the NFL. Filed under Football. The actual odds are -201 for Yes, and +150 for No. Oklahoma is the last team still in the picture. 5 pointsNFL Playoff Best Ball is largely about strategy, with a particular focus on how you thread together combinations of players from specific NFL teams to create a lineup that can navigate through the playoffs to the Super Bowl. May 2, 2023. Rookies. Bengals and Chiefs vs. After winning the National League pennant in seven games, the Arizona Diamondbacks are at to win it all. Playoffs ATS: 7-2-1 ML: 10-0-0. if the Chargers-Raiders game had ended differently, according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction. A team having a 100 percent chance to miss the playoffs might be closer to 99. The Buccaneers are sitting well with a 52% chance of making NFC champs and a 24% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. . This season, of 18 games (including the playoffs), they only lost by more than three points once. The rivals squared off a third time in the playoffs, with the result mirroring the first two. 1, the New England Patriots, also won on Sunday, but in much less impressive fashion, defeating the New York Jets 17-16. Louis Rams on Thursday in St. The 2022 NFL season is over. Win Super Bowl. UPDATED Jun. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Eagles a 39% chance of making the playoffs — but with a big caveat. Here are the playoff odds for the Seahawks and the other 31 NFL teams: No team has clinched a playoff berth so far, although some are all but certain to make it. . NFL Draft. Illustration by Elias Stein. Additional contributions by Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Kshitij Aranke. The Buccaneers are sitting well with a 52% chance of making the NFC championship game and a 24% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Total weighted change in playoff odds: 100. 7 points, good enough to be in the 97th percentile and in 514th place. We released our forecast. FiveThirtyEight's 2017 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. NFL Predictions for Today. 2%. 96. Stats. Only eight didn't receive a single vote. 0. 11 total) No: +600 (bet $10 to win $70. The full 24-team field was revealed on Sunday, Nov. 1 seed in the AFC and have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs. 11, 2022, at 11:09 AM. Week 16 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds. FanDuel Odds to Make Playoffs: +198 (33. Elo. More. Our experts provide insights on their Super Bowl odds, playoff chances, and much more. Probability of each 2022 NFL division sending a given number of teams to the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo forecast model as of Dec. 3%) Biggest strength: Offensive depth. What to watch for: The Giants come in riding the momentum of a 31-24 upset win over the Vikings in the wild-card round, while the Eagles are trying. After 25 years of trying, the Bills finally broke through and returned to the AFC East winner’s circle in 2020. 5h NFL Nation. m. Georgia, Michigan, Oregon & Ohio State currently have the best odds to qualify for the four-team CFP. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. 5 points (25) Moneyline: Ravens win as -130 favorites (bet $10 to win $17. Payoff is calculated differently for the betting odds in the favorite’s and underdog’s markets, but always centered around the value of $100. Take, for example, Sunday’s game between the New. Oregon – +800. Depth Charts. It gives the Irish a 28% right now and just a 31% if they win out and beat Stanford. Specifically, the model’s game-by-game forecasts are based on a combination of FPI ratings and committee (or AP) rankings — 75 percent on FPI and 25 percent on the rankings. Unlike most NFL betting markets, fantasy football challenges, or pick’em. Cincinnati does lose the head-to-head. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Everything you need to know for the NFL in Week 18, including bold predictions, key stats, playoff clinching scenarios and score picks. 4% The Titans benefited from the Ravens' loss Sunday, but the Patriots' victory Monday night. More. Based off those odds, the Chiefs’ implied probability to win the Super Bowl is. Goldberg, 2020. Green Bay’s playoff odds (currently 83 percent) would either rise to 94 percent with a win or fall to 73 percent with a loss, while San Francisco (31. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. NFL wild-card playoff best bets *Odds and analysis as of Monday 1/9* Chargers -1. Yes, I. 538 nfl predictions . 5%, too, according to FiveThirtyEight. 10 But that line is. The Colts head into Week 16 with an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. The change in these two predictions is also shown. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 49ers at Eagles. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.